Iran and Azerbaijan—neighbors with a shared history that spans centuries, woven together with culture, faith, and countless moments of camaraderie. Azerbaijan, for its part, has always seen Iran as more than just a neighbor. It saw a partner, a brother, someone it could count on to stand shoulder to shoulder in the spirit of respect and cooperation.
But let’s not kid ourselves—those days feel like a distant dream. What Azerbaijan has been facing lately isn’t the warmth of brotherhood but the icy chill of distrust. And it didn’t start out of nowhere. Azerbaijan’s decisive victory in the 44-day war set off alarms in Tehran. Instead of applauding justice being served, certain circles in Iran chose a different play: provocation, defiance, and sheer hostility.
It’s like watching a storm gather over the horizon. Tehran’s actions feel less like diplomacy and more like desperation—trying to mask internal chaos by stirring up trouble with a neighbor. And nowhere was this more obvious than in the chilling terrorist attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in January 2023. That wasn’t just a tragedy; it was a slap in the face to everything diplomacy is supposed to stand for.
Azerbaijan has tried, time and time again, to reach out. It’s extended its hand in the hope of building bridges. But every gesture is met with silence or, worse, sabotage. Tehran, it seems, would rather burn those bridges than cross them. Instead of partnership, it offers threats; instead of dialogue, it serves up provocations.
And it’s not just words. When Azerbaijan began documenting Iranian fuel trucks sneaking into Karabakh through the Lachin corridor, it wasn’t just an insult—it was a direct challenge to Azerbaijan’s sovereignty. Tehran didn’t stop there; it doubled down, slapping fake Armenian plates on those trucks as if nobody would notice. Baku noticed. And Baku responded.
Then came the military drills—overt displays of force right at Azerbaijan’s borders. The message? Crystal clear: Iran wasn’t happy with the new order in the South Caucasus. But Baku didn’t flinch. It met Tehran’s drills with its own, sending an equally clear signal: Azerbaijan won’t be bullied, not even by a regional powerhouse.
The embassy attack was the moment when tensions hit their peak. A gunman storms the building, kills the head of security, injures others, and Iranian police show up after forty minutes. Tehran’s response? A shrug and a “he’s mentally ill.” That’s not accountability; that’s avoidance. Two years later, the case is still “under review,” and trust between the two countries is hanging by a thread.
Tehran’s provocations aren’t limited to politics and borders. Clerics like the firebrand from Ardabil are fanning the flames with hate-filled rhetoric aimed at Azerbaijan and its leadership. When Baku demanded action—an apology, a dismissal—it got a lukewarm “expression of regret.” That’s not how you fix a relationship.
Azerbaijan’s stance has been clear and consistent: respect our sovereignty, abandon aggression, and let’s move forward. But Tehran seems stuck in a loop of its own contradictions, unable—or unwilling—to break free.
The shadows of history are long, and the winds of provocation blow strong. Iran has trapped itself in a cycle of defiance and denial, leaving a path of missed opportunities and fractured trust. If Tehran doesn’t change course, it risks turning a neighbor into an adversary for generations to come.
The Terror in Tehran: Blood on the Threshold of Diplomacy
The morning of January 27, 2023, will forever stain the ledger of Azerbaijan-Iran relations. That day, the sanctity of diplomacy was shattered as Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran became the stage for a brutal attack. An armed assailant stormed the building, murdering Chief of Security Orkhan Askerov and injuring several others. This wasn’t just an act of violence; it was a chilling reminder of the deepening fracture between two nations bound by geography but increasingly divided by mistrust.
The attack sent shockwaves across the global diplomatic community. The Vienna Convention of 1961 obliges host nations to safeguard diplomatic missions. In Tehran, that duty was flagrantly neglected. The assailant not only breached the embassy’s secure perimeter but operated with impunity, while Iranian police—stationed mere minutes away—arrived a staggering 40 minutes after the violence began.
For Azerbaijan, this tragedy was more than a failure of security—it was the culmination of what Baku has called Iran’s “systemic negligence” toward its diplomatic obligations.
Tehran’s response did little to calm the storm. Iranian officials hastily dismissed the incident as a personal dispute, claiming it stemmed from “domestic family issues.” To Azerbaijan, this excuse was not only inadequate but insulting. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs was unequivocal: this was no random crime but a deliberate act of terror, calculated to intimidate and undermine the Azerbaijani state.
The investigation that followed devolved into a farce. Two years later, justice remains elusive; the case lingers in a limbo of bureaucratic delays and reinvestigations. Azerbaijan, left with no choice, evacuated its embassy staff, signaling that Tehran could no longer guarantee their safety—a damning indictment of bilateral trust.
The international response to the attack was loud but hollow. Turkey, Azerbaijan’s unwavering ally, expressed full solidarity. The United Nations reiterated Iran’s obligations under international law. Yet these words translated into no meaningful action, and Tehran faced no real consequences.
For Baku, the attack wasn’t an isolated event—it was a tipping point. The incident exposed a profound level of mistrust that extended far beyond the embassy walls. Coupled with Tehran’s open support for Armenia and hostility toward Azerbaijan’s partnerships with Israel, the attack symbolized the depths to which the relationship had sunk.
The terrorist attack on the embassy wasn’t just a tragedy. It was a stark warning of how geopolitical tensions can spiral into violence. Today, Baku continues to demand an independent international investigation to uncover the motives and masterminds behind the crime. But as Tehran drags its feet, the wound festers, casting a shadow over regional diplomacy and trust.
Military Tensions at the Border: Iran’s Uneasy Dance with Azerbaijan’s Rise
Autumn 2020 marked a seismic shift in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s triumph in the 44-day war not only restored its territorial integrity but reshaped the region’s geopolitical chessboard. For Iran, the victory wasn’t a cause for celebration but a challenge to its waning influence. Tehran’s response was telling: not cooperation, but provocation.
Since then, Iran’s military drills along Azerbaijan’s borders have become a recurring spectacle of tension. In October 2021, Tehran launched the Zolfaghar exercises along the Araz River. Officially billed as routine combat readiness tests, these maneuvers were a thinly veiled signal of Iran’s discontent with Azerbaijan’s growing power. The use of pontoon bridges to simulate troop movements across the river was a particularly brazen move, sparking outrage in Azerbaijan, where the drills were seen as an act of intimidation.
The message was clear: Tehran was uneasy with Baku’s strengthening ties with Israel and Turkey. The next year, in October 2022, Tehran doubled down with the Fath-e-Khaibar drills, held near the borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. This time, the stakes were explicit: Iran declared it would not tolerate “geopolitical changes” in the region—a direct rebuke of Azerbaijan and Turkey’s plans for the Zangezur Corridor.
The rhetoric was matched by action. In May 2023, Tehran upped the ante with the Mighty Power drills, showcasing missile strikes and urban warfare scenarios. These maneuvers were a pointed response to joint Azerbaijan-Turkey exercises, highlighting the deepening solidarity between the two allies.
By 2024, Iran’s drills had become even more sophisticated, featuring advanced drones and medium-range missiles, with their locations strategically chosen to underscore their proximity to Azerbaijani borders. Tehran’s propaganda machine painted Azerbaijan as a puppet of Israel, fueling an atmosphere of hostility.
But behind the bluster, Tehran’s actions betrayed insecurity. The drills revealed not strength but fear—fear of Azerbaijan’s ascendance, its strategic alliances, and its ability to challenge Iran’s regional ambitions. Tehran’s open support for Armenia further alienated Baku, deepening the mistrust.
Iran’s military maneuvers are less about defense and more about power projection, an attempt to cling to a geopolitical map that no longer reflects reality. Yet these actions have backfired, pushing Azerbaijan closer to Turkey and Israel while further isolating Tehran.
The once-promising relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran now lies fractured, a casualty of mistrust, provocations, and missed opportunities. Whether Tehran can adapt to the new realities of the South Caucasus or remain ensnared in its contradictions will define not only its ties with Azerbaijan but its role in the region’s future.
Iranian Propaganda: From Karabakh to the Fractured "Axis of Resistance"
Iran’s alignment with Armenia during the Second Karabakh War was never subtle. Through fuel supplies, military aid, and a blatant dismissal of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty, Tehran positioned itself in stark opposition to Baku. Yet, the swift and decisive defeat of Armenian forces—supported by Ankara and bolstered by Azerbaijan’s strategic brilliance—sent shockwaves through Iran’s regional ambitions, marking a turning point in Tehran’s geopolitical calculus.
The "Axis of Resistance," Tehran’s long-standing framework for projecting power across the Middle East through Shiite proxies, now teeters on the edge of irrelevance. Losses in Syria, the waning influence of Hezbollah, and intensifying economic pressures have exposed cracks in this once-formidable alliance. In this fragile context, Azerbaijan, with its independent and assertive foreign policy, has emerged as a convenient scapegoat for Tehran’s domestic frustrations.
Crippled by economic turmoil, nationwide protests, and relentless international sanctions, Iran finds itself grappling with internal instability. Against this backdrop, anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric has proven to be more than just ideological posturing; it is a calculated attempt to rally disillusioned segments of the population and redirect attention away from Tehran’s own failings. The inflammatory outbursts of figures like Ardabil’s Mullah Amoli are not isolated provocations—they are the sharp edge of a broader strategy designed to consolidate control through manufactured enmity.
Mullah Amoli: The Voice of Tehran’s Resentment
In Ardabil, Mullah Amoli has taken center stage as the mouthpiece of Iranian hostility. His incendiary attacks on President Ilham Aliyev and the Azerbaijani people are emblematic of Tehran’s campaign to undermine Baku’s standing. Far from being a rogue actor, Amoli’s rhetoric reflects Tehran’s calculated use of religious figures to inflame tensions and stoke division.
Baku, however, has not remained silent. Azerbaijan’s government has unequivocally condemned Amoli’s actions, demanding his immediate dismissal and a formal apology from Tehran. This assertive response underscores a critical message: Azerbaijan will not tolerate provocations, and Tehran risks losing any chance of meaningful dialogue if these actions persist.
In the face of mounting hostility, Azerbaijan stands firm, leveraging its deepening alliances with Turkey and Israel to fortify its position. Baku’s strategic diplomacy and growing regional influence highlight a nation prepared to counter Tehran’s maneuvers while safeguarding its sovereignty.
Key Messages from Baku:
Accountability is Non-Negotiable: Those responsible for the attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy must be brought to justice. Tehran owes an unequivocal apology for its provocations.
Azerbaijan Defines the Terms: Baku will not allow Iranian interference in its affairs. Stronger military and economic partnerships with Turkey and Israel reinforce Azerbaijan’s independence and resilience.
Defending the Narrative: Azerbaijan actively counters Iran’s propaganda efforts, projecting a narrative of strength, legitimacy, and regional leadership.
... The crisis in Azerbaijan-Iran relations has evolved beyond routine diplomatic tensions. It is now a high-stakes contest for influence and identity, where Baku’s rising power clashes with Tehran’s attempts to hold onto outdated regional paradigms. While Iran leans on provocations and pressure, Azerbaijan charts a forward-looking course, asserting its role as a leader in the South Caucasus.
This struggle is no longer just about borders or alliances; it is a contest over the very future of the region. Azerbaijan has shown that it will not waver in defending its interests. The question now is whether Tehran will adapt to this new reality or continue down a path of self-isolation and diminishing relevance in the geopolitical arena.
The stakes are clear, and the clock is ticking. Tehran’s next moves will determine whether it cements itself as an adversary or finds a way to coexist with a neighbor whose strength and resolve it can no longer afford to underestimate.