In 2023–2024, China’s objective is unambiguous: to reclaim its historic status as the dominant force in East Asia. For over two millennia, China held a commanding role in the region, until the Treaty of Nanjing in 1842 ushered in Western and Japanese influence, curtailing its sovereignty.
Now, armed with a vast arsenal of resources, Beijing is poised to reassert itself as a heavyweight in the global geopolitical game.
China’s Key Geopolitical Assets
Demographic Muscle
With a population nearing 1.4 billion, China stands as one of the world’s most populous nations, giving it an unmatched internal market and a massive labor force. This demographic powerhouse isn’t just a domestic asset; it’s a powerful lever on the global stage, allowing China to project influence far beyond its borders.
Strategic Territory and Location
China’s massive territory, spanning roughly 9.6 million square kilometers, makes it the third-largest country in the world, after Russia and Canada. This extensive landmass endows China with critical geopolitical leverage. Its strategic positioning in the Asia-Pacific region allows it to serve as a central node for global trade and transport routes, amplifying its influence across continents.
Economic Clout
China’s economy is on an accelerated upward trajectory. In 1950, it accounted for a mere 3.3% of global GDP. By 1992, this figure had jumped to 10%, and projections for 2024 suggest that China will control over 20% of the global economy. This economic powerhouse has secured China’s influence in international trade and financial markets, and in 2023, China ranked in the top three for foreign direct investment, pulling in $50 billion. With foreign reserves hitting $90 billion, Beijing holds substantial financial leverage, allowing it to exert influence on the world stage in ways few can match.
Military Prowess
China is ramping up its military might in 2023–2024. With around 300 strategic nuclear warheads—a number that could climb to 600–900 in the coming decades—and an armed force of four million personnel supported by a $90 billion defense budget (according to the Pentagon), China is staking its claim as a global military power. Rapid economic growth is enabling substantial investments in advanced technologies and cutting-edge weapons systems, bolstering China’s nuclear arsenal and securing its military stance to safeguard its national interests.
Diplomatic Influence Through the UN and Beyond
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, armed with veto power, China remains an influential player across numerous global and regional organizations in 2023. This status provides Beijing with a suite of unique levers, enabling it to shape world politics according to its strategic vision. China’s diplomatic apparatus, active and assertive, is an essential component of its long-term geopolitical agenda, as it pushes forward in the drive toward a multipolar world order.
Domestic Challenges and Issues
China’s ambitions are tempered by significant domestic hurdles. In 2023, the nation’s economic development showed stark disparities across its 29 provinces, revealing an uneven growth that complicates Beijing’s larger agenda. Globalization has further intensified the friction between China’s economic, social, and political systems. The income gap is glaring: in 2023, China’s GDP per capita was $7,600, placing it at 109th globally—a far cry from the economic powerhouse image Beijing projects internationally.
Social and Political Challenges
Inequality and poverty remain at the forefront of China’s internal challenges. According to 2023 data, the wealthiest 20% of Chinese citizens hold a full 50% of the national income, while the bottom 20% hold a mere 4.7%. Such a disparity has exacerbated issues of access to essential services, with millions of Chinese citizens still unable to secure adequate healthcare and education. This strain has shown in social unrest, with an estimated 80,000 protests reported across China in 2023, highlighting the country’s underlying social tensions and the need for cohesive internal policy.
China-Europe Relations
Over the past two decades, China’s economic influence in Europe has reshaped the continent’s financial ecosystem. In 2023, China became the EU’s largest trading partner, accounting for 20.8% of EU imports and ranking third in export volume with a 9% share. In today’s world, economic might has become the core driver of geopolitics, with nations leveraging their financial clout to mold foreign policy and secure a global edge. Consequently, the EU now views China not just as a trade partner but as an economic and systemic competitor, highlighting the formidable challenges posed by China’s rise.
Since its inception, the European Union has sought to curb nationalism and promote mutual understanding through trade, evolving from a coalition of six states into a global economic force of 27 nations. Yet despite this economic might, the EU now faces an existential question: can it resist China’s influence and avoid becoming an economic satellite? In today’s shifting landscape, economic power dictates strategic leverage, and “soft power” alone may not suffice to defend EU interests.
Meanwhile, China is sidestepping traditional frameworks, striking bilateral deals with 15 EU countries through the Belt and Road Initiative. Its “14+1” mechanism with Central and Eastern European countries further capitalizes on weaknesses in EU governance, underscoring the potency of economic pressure as a diplomatic tool.
Over the past decade, the EU has also experienced pressure from the U.S. In 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski warned that a strong, united Europe could become America’s potential global competitor. President Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy and the Trump administration’s approach have since tested the foundations of the U.S.-EU partnership. As the EU strives to maintain trade relations with China, it faces a precarious balancing act, with stringent U.S. economic policies and intensifying China competition creating a challenging geopolitical tightrope.
Military Actions in Ukraine and the Balance of Power
The military conflict in Ukraine has further complicated the global power dynamics. The United States has actively involved itself in the conflict, aiming to consolidate new Western alliances, a move that has rippled into China-EU relations. China, for its part, is attempting to position itself as a mediator in Ukraine, while simultaneously making strides toward normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Meanwhile, the EU faces the challenge of balancing its support for the U.S. with a strategically cautious engagement with China.
Europe’s pursuit of “strategic sovereignty” has emerged as a defining factor in its global stance and is essential for realizing its long-term aspirations. However, crafting a cohesive foreign and defense policy among EU members remains a daunting task. Europe’s restrained approach toward China stems not only from human rights concerns but also from China’s growing influence in critical sectors and Europe’s increasing dependence on Chinese technology. While the EU seeks deeper cooperation with China, it must also establish a foothold in critical strategic areas, including artificial intelligence, supply chain security, the digital economy, and climate change, all while preserving its sovereignty.
Ultimately, while Europe does not engage with China at the level of confrontation seen with the U.S., it must consider China more as a cooperative partner than a rival, focusing on a balanced approach to global collaboration.
China’s Key Geopolitical Vectors
China’s primary geopolitical goals for 2023–2024 revolve around promoting a multipolar world and solidifying its influence as both a regional and global power. Beijing has already allocated substantial resources to these pursuits, guided by a pragmatic and independent strategy that advances its national interests. Below, we explore the primary vectors of China’s geopolitical strategy, its actions across Asia, Eurasia, and globally, and the challenges it faces.
Supporting a Multipolar World
In line with Russia, China has actively advocated for a multipolar world, aiming to position itself as a central player within this framework. Over recent years, Beijing has openly challenged U.S. interests in East Asia, particularly on issues involving Taiwan’s status, democratic movements in Hong Kong, the Tibetan question, Korean reunification, and territorial claims in the South China Sea. Nonetheless, China has preserved its close economic and trade relationship with the U.S., which continued into 2023. Strategic understanding between China and the U.S. is critical for any stable balance of power in Eurasia.
Strengthening Influence in Central Asia
One of China’s primary objectives in Central Asia is to expand its influence via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which has become the cornerstone of Beijing’s regional strategy. While initially focused on security and border issues, by 2023 China had launched a full-scale economic expansion, placing Central Asia at the heart of its interests. Consequently, China has emerged as a significant competitor to Russia, particularly in resource-rich countries. By 2024, China was importing gas from Kazakhstan and increasing its energy partnerships with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan, for instance, committed to an annual supply of 30 billion cubic meters of gas to China through a co-constructed pipeline. Between 2023 and 2024, China established a free-trade and capital movement zone in the region and completed 87 transportation projects, including a crucial corridor linking the Caspian Sea to China via Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Relations with Regional Competitors
Beijing is increasingly wary of potential coalitions forming among key neighbors, particularly Russia, Japan, and India. Of particular concern is the strengthening U.S.-Japan alliance and the trilateral cooperation involving Australia. This alignment gained traction in 2023, posing a serious challenge to China’s geopolitical stance in the region.
As China continues to navigate this evolving landscape, it faces both opportunities and obstacles in solidifying its role as a pivotal power in a multipolar world, carefully balancing alliances and rivalries to secure its strategic ambitions.
Competition with Japan
While economic ties between China and Japan remain robust, with trade exceeding $170 billion in 2023, political tensions are a persistent undercurrent. China remains skeptical of Japan’s rearmament efforts, interpreting Tokyo’s limited acknowledgment of its wartime actions as a troubling signal. Japan’s omission of the 1937 Nanjing Massacre from its textbooks remains a significant point of friction, adding fuel to the long-standing diplomatic strain between the two nations.
Connections with the Developing World
China has long positioned itself as a champion of developing nations across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In 2023, Beijing intensified efforts to expand its influence in Africa, particularly in the energy sector, by launching large-scale projects. China has committed to doubling its financial aid and extending $5 billion in loans to African nations. Meanwhile, in Latin America, Beijing capitalizes on anti-American sentiment, forging strong ties with countries like Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia.
This outreach strategy has proven instrumental in bolstering China’s global influence. By establishing itself as a viable alternative partner, Beijing gains considerable leverage in international affairs and strengthens its image as a counterbalance to U.S. and European influence.
China in Pursuit of Global Leadership: Strategic Partnership with Azerbaijan
China’s 2023–2024 agenda to solidify its geopolitical standing and secure a pivotal role in a multipolar world order has been reinforced by its expanding influence in Central Asia and deepening alliances with developing countries. As Beijing builds its economic and military might, it is also re-evaluating its relationships with the U.S. and other global powers.
China’s relationship with Azerbaijan has grown into a strategic partnership by 2023–2024, underpinned by political, economic, and humanitarian cooperation based on mutual strategic interests. Key aspects of this partnership include a range of agreements and joint activities within international organizations.
Political and Geopolitical Cooperation
Azerbaijan-China diplomatic ties date back to 1992, culminating in a strategic partnership in 2015. By the end of 2023, high-level contacts and political dialogue remained robust. A significant moment in this relationship was Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s 2019 visit to China, where he met with President Xi Jinping. This visit laid the groundwork for a “Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership,” serving as a solid foundation for further cooperation across various domains.
Cooperation within the SCO and BRICS
China and Azerbaijan’s collaboration within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has grown significantly, particularly after Azerbaijan attained dialogue partner status in 2016. This step unlocked new economic and security cooperation opportunities. Joint initiatives in energy and transportation now stand as notable achievements of this alliance. Moreover, Azerbaijan’s interest in BRICS is on the rise, and China’s central role in the organization opens additional avenues for Azerbaijan to engage within the BRICS framework.
Economic Cooperation and Projects
Economic cooperation between China and Azerbaijan has flourished, particularly in trade and energy sectors. As of 2023, trade turnover between the two nations surpassed $2 billion. With its oil and gas resources, Azerbaijan has established itself as a crucial energy supplier to the Chinese market. Meanwhile, transportation projects like the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway have further strengthened ties, especially within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework. This key corridor reinforces Azerbaijan’s strategic position as a bridge between Europe and Asia, aligning perfectly with the ambitions of both countries.
The China-Azerbaijan partnership is a standout example of mutually advantageous cooperation, combining economic, political, and strategic interests to promote regional and global stability.
Economic and Transportation Initiative: The Belt and Road and Azerbaijan’s Role
Since launching the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, China has promoted it as the backbone of a new global trade and transportation network. Azerbaijan has become a vital hub in this initiative, linking Asia with Europe. This partnership has drawn significant Chinese investments into Azerbaijan’s infrastructure, resulting in the development of large-scale transportation projects. By 2024, new logistics centers are set to open, and the Baku Port’s infrastructure will expand, further tightening economic bonds between the two nations.
Official Agreements and Joint Projects
In 2023–2024, Azerbaijan-China relations saw a surge in momentum with several new economic agreements. In September 2023, a “Memorandum of Trade Cooperation” was signed between their Ministries of Economy, laying the groundwork for increased trade and joint economic ventures. In 2024, the two countries also agreed to establish joint industrial parks, a move expected to accelerate industrial growth and further deepen economic collaboration.
Humanitarian Ties and Cultural Exchange
Humanitarian cooperation between China and Azerbaijan has also experienced robust growth. Educational and cultural programs launched in 2023–2024 have created more opportunities for Azerbaijani students to study at Chinese universities. Confucius Institutes in Azerbaijan promote Chinese language and cultural programs, and 2023 saw the two nations host Cultural Days, enriching intercultural dialogue and mutual understanding.
Strategic Partnership: Coordinating Interests on the Global Stage
China and Azerbaijan’s relationship has evolved into a comprehensive strategic partnership, with expanding ties across political, economic, geopolitical, and humanitarian fronts. This collaboration aligns their strategic interests regionally and globally. Within frameworks like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, joint efforts are instrumental in promoting stability and growth across Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Eastern Wisdom as a Foundation of Partnership
As Confucius once said, “Peace within illuminates your life, but great deeds shape your steps toward peace.” These words capture the spirit of the China-Azerbaijan partnership, which is rooted in a shared vision of peace and progress. President Xi Jinping has echoed this sentiment: “To move forward, firm roots are essential. The highest strength lies in stability and sustainable development.” His words underscore the stable foundation of this partnership and a shared commitment to the future.
The words of Laozi, “Success comes with patience and wisdom. No matter how great the challenges, one must move forward and achieve results with diligence and time,” mirror the resilience and persistence that China and Azerbaijan display in their joint projects and on the international stage, channeling their combined efforts toward mutual benefit and enduring stability.